A Comparison of Alternative Forecast Models of REIT Volatility

Jian Zhou and Zhixin Kang

Online First™, 30 July 2009

Abstract

This study compares the relative performance of several well-known models in the forecasting of REIT volatility. Overall our results suggest that long-memory models (ARFIMA & FIGARCH) provide the best forecasts. Using either a large sample or some statistically justified small subsamples, we find that long memory models consistently outperform their short-memory counterparts (GARCH & Stochastic Volatility models) over a variety of forecast horizons. We also find that asymmetric models (EGARCH & FIEGARCH) are the worst performers among all models. Our study complements and extends a recent study of Cotter and Stevenson (2008) which demonstrates the usefulness of long-memory models in modeling REIT volatility. We conclude that in addition to modeling REIT volatility, long-memory models should also be adopted to forecast REIT volatility.Keywords  REIT volatility – Forecasting – Short-memory model – Long-memory model

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